Based on the scraped data, Earl's uses:
- Format: Online ascending-bid (English) auction
- Buyer's Premium: 18% (critical cost factor)
- Transparency: Shows current bid, bid count, watch count
- Timing: Staggered end times (lots end minutes apart)
- Information: Item descriptions, images, condition notes
Common Value Items (retail arbitrage opportunities):
- Electronics with known MSRPs (Shark vacuum, Woojer vest)
- Branded goods (Hoka shoes, Creed fragrances)
- LEGO sets with verifiable retail prices
Private Value Items (personal use):
- Clothing (sizing matters)
- Fragrances (personal preference)
- Home goods (need-specific)
Earl's Insight: Most items have BOTH components. The 72% max bid rule (85% after fees) works because it focuses on common value (resale potential) while capping private value enthusiasm.
Definition: In common value auctions, the winner often overpays because they had the most optimistic valuation.
How it applies to Earl's:
- Many bidders don't account for the 18% premium
- Emotional attachment to "winning" drives bids above rational limits
- Items with high watch counts (50+ watchers) are most susceptible
Your Advantage: By calculating max bid = retail × 0.72, you systematically avoid the winner's curse. If you lose, someone else overpaid!
Earl's Uses SOFT CLOSE ✅
When a bid comes in near the end time, the auction extends (typically by 2-5 minutes). This continues until no new bids arrive during the extension period.
Why This Matters:
- Sniping doesn't work (auction just extends)
- Early bidding has less strategic disadvantage
- The auction becomes more like a traditional ascending-bid (English) auction
- Final prices tend to be higher than hard-close auctions
Optimal Strategy for Soft Close:
✅ DO: Use proxy bidding at your max (retail × 0.72)
- Enter your maximum bid when convenient
- System automatically outbids others up to your limit
- No need to babysit the auction in final seconds
- Prevents emotional "just one more bid" escalation
✅ DO: Bid your TRUE maximum from the start
- Don't bid incrementally ($50, then $60, then $70...)
- Enter $100 if that's your max
- Saves time and prevents emotional attachment
❌ DON'T: Try to snipe
- You'll just trigger an extension
- Then someone else bids, another extension
- You end up in a bidding war anyway
❌ DON'T: Watch the auction obsessively
- Proxy bidding handles it for you
- Watching just creates emotional attachment
- You'll be tempted to exceed your max
Soft Close Implications:
✅ Advantages:
- Reduces "I got sniped!" frustration
- Everyone gets a fair chance to bid their max
- True market value emerges (highest bidder wins)
- Less stressful - no need to camp on auction in final seconds
❌ Disadvantages (for you):
- Prices tend to go higher (no snipe opportunities)
- More time for others to research and realize value
- Emotional bidders have more chances to bid
- Bidding wars can escalate over multiple extensions
Counter-Strategy: Since soft close tends to drive prices UP, your information edge becomes even more critical. Many bidders will exceed rational prices in the heat of extensions. Your max bid (retail × 0.72) is your anchor - stick to it no matter how many times the auction extends.
You Have an Edge When:
- You know true retail value (most don't research)
- You understand the 18% premium impact (many ignore)
- You can assess condition from images (Gemini analysis helps)
- You know market demand (eBay sold listings, etc.)
Examples from Auction #10823:
- Woojer Vest: $5 current bid, $299 retail → Most bidders don't know this niche product
- Shark Vacuum: $8 current bid, $399 retail → "Pre-owned" scares bidders away
- Creed Carmina: $75 current bid, $320 retail → But 52 bids means others DO know
Strategy: Target items where information asymmetry is HIGHEST:
- Niche tech (Birdfy camera, Chef IQ thermometer)
- Specialized brands (Drybar, Woojer)
- Items with poor descriptions (can't tell it's valuable from title alone)
Earl's lots end 2-6 minutes apart → Quasi-simultaneous
Theoretical Prediction: Bidders with budget constraints will focus on fewer items, creating opportunity in "overlooked" lots.
Your Strategy:
- Identify your top 10 from the Quick Actions list
- Prioritize by deal score (not just end time)
- Focus on 3-4 items ending within a 20-minute window
- If you lose the first, immediately shift to backups
- If you win early, stop bidding on similar items
Example: Don't bid on both Hoka shoes (lots #39 and #59) - pick one and move on if outbid.
What "watch count" tells you:
- High watch count (50+) = high competition expected
- Low watch count (5-10) = potential hidden gem
- Watch count > bid count = people waiting to snipe
What "bid count" tells you:
- High bid count (30+) = competitive, multiple serious bidders
- Low bid count (1-5) = flying under radar OR nobody wants it
- Rapid bid increases = emotional bidding (avoid)
Counter-intuitive insight: Lot #23 (Woojer Vest): 20 watchers but only 1 bid at $5
- Could mean: Everyone knows it's valuable but waiting to snipe
- Or: People don't know what it is (confusion over "haptic vest")
- Risk: 19 snipers could hit in final minute
- Mitigation: Bid your max ($215) at 5 seconds to close
If you bid on 10 items at max bid, you're committing:
- Total potential spend: $2,156 (sum of all max bids)
- Expected wins: ~2-4 items (assuming 20-40% win rate)
- Actual spend: ~$400-600
Theory: Treat this as a portfolio
- Bid max on ALL good deals
- You'll be outbid on most (winner's curse gets them)
- You'll win the items where others didn't research or got distracted
- Expected value is positive if deal scores are accurate
Don't: Artificially limit yourself to bidding on only 2-3 items because you "might win them all" - you won't!
People anchor on starting bid or current bid:
- Item at $5 "feels cheap" so they bid
- Item at $75 "feels expensive" even if it's still undervalued
Your move: Ignore current bid. Only compare effective cost (current × 1.18) vs retail × 0.85.
Once someone makes a bid, they feel ownership and fight to keep it:
- "I'm winning this!" → overbids to defend position
- Especially true if they're the current high bidder
Your move: Don't bid early and get emotionally attached. Swoop in at the end.
Bidders love round numbers: $50, $75, $100
Your move: Bid $51, $76, $101 to beat them by a dollar.
Most bidders focus on:
- Items they personally want (private value)
- Obvious "name brands" (electronics, designer goods)
- Items ending first
Your move: Target items 5-10 positions back (lots #50-80) that end in the "middle" of the auction close.
Most bidders forget about:
- The 18% premium (biggest mistake!)
- Shipping/pickup costs
- Sales tax (if applicable)
- Resale fees (if flipping on eBay)
Your move: You already account for the 18%. Add others if relevant.
✅ Run the analyzer with --prices ✅ Calculate max bids (retail × 0.72) ✅ Identify 10+ targets with deal score > 70% ✅ Read descriptions for condition, defects, "as-is" warnings
- Watch your target lots in browser tabs
- Note if bidding accelerates suddenly (competition)
- Be ready to pivot to backup items
Best Practice: Enter proxy bids early (1-3 hours before close)
- Bid your MAX (retail × 0.72) on all target items
- Set it and forget it - no need to monitor constantly
- System automatically outbids others up to your limit
- You'll get outbid notifications if someone exceeds your max
Don't Chase:
- If outbid and price exceeds your max → walk away
- If outbid but still under your max → system auto-rebids
- Resist urge to increase your max in final minutes
- Remember: Losing means someone else fell for winner's curse!
Multiple Lots Strategy:
- Bid max on 8-10 items simultaneously
- Expect to win 2-3 (others will exceed rational prices)
- If winning too many early, reduce bids on remaining items
- If losing all, your retail estimates may be low (good data!)
- Calculate actual ROI (factor in premium, time, risk)
- Track which strategies worked
- Refine deal score estimates
Based on auction theory and soft close dynamics, I predict:
-
Woojer Vest (Lot #23) will see competitive bidding as close time approaches
- 20 watchers suggest awareness of value
- Soft close means it may extend multiple times
- Final price: $80-150 (still good at your max of $215)
- Your edge: Most won't know it retails for $299
-
Creed Carmina (Lot #31) will exceed your max bid
- Already at $75 with 52 bids
- High signaling → multiple determined bidders
- Final price: $250+ (over your $230 max)
-
Shark Vacuum (Lot #80) is the true hidden gem
- Only 4 bids despite incredible value
- "Pre-owned" scares people off
- Low anchor ($8) keeps it under radar
- Final price: $50-80 (way under your $287 max)
-
Items ending in middle slots (lots #40-70) will have less competition
- Attention focused on first/last items
- Bidders get fatigued
- Best opportunities
- Winner's Curse is Real: If you consistently win every auction, you're overbidding
- Information Asymmetry: Your biggest edge - know retail values
- Soft Close = Proxy Bidding: Enter your max early, let system handle it
- Portfolio Approach: Bid max on all good deals, win a few
- Ignore Psychology: Stick to the math (retail × 0.72)
- 18% Premium: Most bidders underestimate this - you don't
- Don't Chase: If outbid above your max, celebrate (you avoided overpaying!)
The 85% rule (max bid = retail × 0.72) is theoretically sound. It:
- Avoids winner's curse (you lose when others overbid)
- Maintains positive expected value (profit margin after fees)
- Provides downside protection (can resell at 85% if needed)
- Removes emotional decision-making (just follow the formula)
Bottom Line: Auction theory says your approach is sound. Bid max on everything that meets the 72% threshold, expect to win 20-40%, and profit on what you win.