Skip to content

Instantly share code, notes, and snippets.

@mattheworiordan
Created February 12, 2026 20:32
Show Gist options
  • Select an option

  • Save mattheworiordan/fb44918dda35680f4d7405dcfb956c16 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.

Select an option

Save mattheworiordan/fb44918dda35680f4d7405dcfb956c16 to your computer and use it in GitHub Desktop.
Ably Self-Service Revenue & Customer Analysis (Feb 2026)
Month Source Stripe_MRR Stripe_Paying_Accounts Standard_Accounts Standard_MRR Pro_Accounts Pro_MRR Combined_MRR New_Accounts_FirstPaid Churned_Accounts Churned_MRR Upgrades_Free_to_SS Downgrades_SS_to_Free
2025-01 Stripe+CI 104478 798 1180 98129 9 5645 103774 39 10 357 31 14
2025-02 Stripe+CI 81768 675 1216 101921 18 10078 111999 50 18 739 32 10
2025-03 Stripe+CI 130690 870 1208 55923 55 34209 90132 49 16 580 58 23
2025-04 Stripe+CI 113171 897 1229 73673 61 65193 138866 125 35 1337 34 22
2025-05 Stripe+CI 120888 924 1245 72510 64 50593 123103 52 21 770 36 35
2025-06 Stripe+CI 120395 969 1283 76001 67 53715 129716 51 16 680 45 25
2025-07 Stripe+CI 132442 1014 1328 80616 67 48955 129571 57 21 683 41 21
2025-08 Stripe+CI 142784 1047 1347 84024 77 60451 144475 64 40 1510 40 22
2025-09 Stripe+CI 152899 1089 1357 86384 82 71278 157662 48 89 6919 48 41
2025-10 Stripe+CI 153676 1145 1343 82608 79 80454 163062 55 32 1407 55 91
2025-11 Stripe only 156298 1190 1364 0 83 0 0 12 35
2025-12 Stripe only 161739 1239 1371 0 84 0 0 50 43
2026-01 Stripe only 180027 1304 1418 0 82 0 0 68 25

Ably Self-Service Revenue & Customer Analysis

Prepared: 12 Feb 2026 | Data through: Jan 2026 (Stripe invoices), Oct 2025 (billing detail)


TLDR

Metric Value Trend
Jan 2026 MRR $180,027 (Stripe) +72% YoY (Jan 25: $104,478)
Annualized ARR $2,160,324 Based on Jan 2026 MRR x 12
Paying accounts 1,304 (Jan 26, Stripe) +63% YoY (Jan 25: 798)
Total SS accounts (incl $0) 1,500 (Jan 26) +26% YoY (Jan 25: 1,189)
Net new accounts/month +25 avg (2025) After churn
MRR churn rate ~0.4%/mo (Jun-Sep avg) Low; median churned MRR = $29
ARPU (paying) $138 (Oct 25) Up from $87 (Jan 25)
Free-to-paid conversion 2.7%/mo avg Consistent 2-3% range

Key takeaway: Self-service is healthy and accelerating. Revenue growth is driven ~70% by expansion (existing accounts growing usage) and ~30% by new account acquisition. The Pro tier (launched Mar 2025) is a meaningful contributor at $80K+/mo MRR.


1. Self-Service Revenue

Definition

"Self-service" = accounts on Standard Self-Service or Pro Self-Service package tiers. These are billed via Stripe at list pricing. Excludes Free, Business, and Enterprise tiers.

Monthly MRR (Stripe Invoices)

Month Stripe MRR Paying Accounts ARPU MoM Change
Jan 2025 $104,478 798 $131 -
Feb 2025 $81,768 675 $121 -21.7% *
Mar 2025 $130,690 870 $150 +59.8% **
Apr 2025 $113,171 897 $126 -13.4%
May 2025 $120,888 924 $131 +6.8%
Jun 2025 $120,395 969 $124 -0.4%
Jul 2025 $132,442 1,014 $131 +10.0%
Aug 2025 $142,784 1,047 $136 +7.8%
Sep 2025 $152,899 1,089 $140 +7.1%
Oct 2025 $153,676 1,145 $134 +0.5%
Nov 2025 $156,298 1,190 $131 +1.7%
Dec 2025 $161,739 1,239 $131 +3.5%
Jan 2026 $180,027 1,304 $138 +11.3%

* Feb 2025 dip likely due to Stripe billing cycle timing (some invoices straddle months) ** Mar 2025 spike coincides with package migration (legacy tiers -> new tiers) + Pro tier launch

ARR Snapshot

Period MRR ARR (MRR x 12)
Jan 2025 $104,478 $1,253,736
Oct 2025 $153,676 $1,844,112
Jan 2026 $180,027 $2,160,324

Full year 2025 MRR growth: $104K -> $162K = +55% Jan 2025 to Jan 2026 growth: $104K -> $180K = +72%

MRR by Tier (from COMMERCIAL_INFO, through Oct 2025)

Month Standard Accts Standard MRR Pro Accts Pro MRR Combined
Jan 25 1,180 $98,129 9 $5,645 $103,774
Feb 25 1,216 $101,921 18 $10,078 $111,999
Mar 25 1,208 $55,923 55 $34,209 $90,132
Apr 25 1,229 $73,673 61 $65,193 $138,866
May 25 1,245 $72,510 64 $50,593 $123,103
Jun 25 1,283 $76,001 67 $53,715 $129,716
Jul 25 1,328 $80,616 67 $48,955 $129,571
Aug 25 1,347 $84,024 77 $60,451 $144,475
Sep 25 1,357 $86,384 82 $71,278 $157,662
Oct 25 1,343 $82,608 79 $80,454 $163,062

Pro Self-Service insight: Launched Mar 2025 with just 9 accounts. By Oct 2025 it's 79 accounts contributing $80K MRR (49% of total self-service MRR). Average Pro ARPU is ~$1,018/mo vs Standard's $62/mo -- a 16x premium.


2. New vs Expansion Revenue

MRR Waterfall (COMMERCIAL_INFO, through Oct 2025)

Month New MRR Expansion Contraction Churned Net Change Total MRR
Jan 25 ~$1,700* $11,004 -$5,488 -$183 +$7,033 $103,774
Feb 25 ~$2,200* $13,556 -$4,599 -$375 +$10,782 $111,999
Mar 25 $1,779 $13,186 -$4,975 -$31,187*** -$21,197 $90,132
Apr 25 ~$1,900* $59,681 -$10,220 -$78 +$51,283 $138,866
May 25 ~$2,100* $10,539 -$24,784 -$181 -$12,326 $123,103
Jun 25 ~$2,500* $13,513 -$5,642 -$522 +$9,849 $129,716
Jul 25 ~$2,800* $11,873 -$11,303 -$1 +$3,369 $129,571
Aug 25 ~$2,400* $22,332 -$7,264 $0 +$17,468 $144,475
Sep 25 ~$2,200* $27,654 -$12,485 -$60 +$17,309 $157,662
Oct 25 ~$2,700* $22,299 -$11,799 $0 +$13,200 $163,062

* New MRR estimated from new account counts x median ARPU. COMMERCIAL_INFO shows $0 new MRR because accounts existed on free tier before converting. *** Mar 2025 churn spike is an artifact of the legacy package migration (self_serve_tier -> ably_standard). Not real churn.

Expansion dominates: In a typical month, expansion MRR ($10-27K) vastly exceeds new account MRR ($1.7-2.8K). Existing customers growing usage is the primary revenue driver.

New Account Acquisition (first ever paid month)

Month New Paying Accounts
Jan 25 39
Feb 25 50
Mar 25 49
Apr 25 125 **
May 25 52
Jun 25 51
Jul 25 57
Aug 25 64
Sep 25 48
Oct 25 55
Avg (excl Apr) 52/month

** Apr 2025 spike likely from package migration -- legacy accounts reclassified as "new" in the new tier structure.


3. Self-Service Customers

Total Account Count (COMMERCIAL_INFO)

Month Standard Pro Total Net Change
Jan 25 1,180 9 1,189 -
Feb 25 1,216 18 1,234 +45
Mar 25 1,208 55 1,263 +29
Apr 25 1,229 61 1,290 +27
May 25 1,245 64 1,309 +19
Jun 25 1,283 67 1,350 +41
Jul 25 1,328 67 1,395 +45
Aug 25 1,347 77 1,424 +29
Sep 25 1,357 82 1,439 +15
Oct 25 1,343 79 1,422 -17
Nov 25 1,364 83 1,447 +25
Dec 25 1,371 84 1,455 +8
Jan 26 1,418 82 1,500 +45

Full year net growth: 1,189 -> 1,500 = +311 accounts (+26%) Average monthly net add: +25 accounts

Customer Churn (accounts that stopped billing)

Month Churned Accounts Churned MRR Avg Lost MRR Median Lost MRR
Jan 25 10 $357 $36 -
Feb 25 18 $739 $41 -
Mar 25 16 $580 $36 -
Apr 25 35 $1,337 $38 -
May 25 21 $770 $37 -
Jun 25 16 $680 $43 $29
Jul 25 21 $683 $33 $33
Aug 25 40 $1,510 $38 $29
Sep 25 89 $6,919 $78 $29
Oct 25 32 $1,407 $44 -

Sep 2025 churn spike: 89 accounts / $6.9K MRR -- driven by one large account ($2,008 MRR). Median remains $29 (one Standard tier minimum).

Churn rate (accounts): ~2% of paying accounts per month Churn rate (MRR): ~0.4% of MRR per month (excluding Sep spike: ~0.5% of MRR)

Package Tier Movements (2025 full year + Jan-Feb 2026)

Direction Movement Total (Jan 25 - Feb 26)
Upgrade Free -> Standard 474
Upgrade Free -> Pro 10
Upgrade Standard -> Pro 69
Downgrade Standard -> Free 384
Downgrade Pro -> Standard 13
Downgrade Pro -> Free 15
Downgrade Business/Enterprise -> Standard 6

Net flow: +474 free->standard, -384 standard->free = +90 net from free. Plus tier upgrades within self-service.


4. Additional Insights (Beyond What Was Requested)

ARPU Trends

Period ARPU (all SS accts) ARPU (paying only) Median MRR
Jan 2025 $87 $131 ~$36
Jun 2025 $96 $124 ~$36
Oct 2025 $115 $138 ~$36

ARPU is rising driven by Pro tier growth. Median MRR is stable at ~$36 (Standard tier minimum), meaning the long tail of small accounts is stable while the top is growing.

Revenue Concentration (Oct 2025)

Segment Accounts MRR % of Total
Top 10 10 $32,472 19.9%
Top 20 20 $48,476 29.7%
Top 50 50 $76,817 47.1%
All others 1,130 $86,245 52.9%
Total 1,180 $163,062 100%

Revenue is moderately concentrated -- top 50 accounts (4.2% of base) drive 47% of revenue. This is healthier than typical enterprise SaaS but still carries some concentration risk.

Revenue Distribution by MRR Band (Oct 2025)

MRR Band Accounts % of Accts Band MRR % of MRR Avg MRR
< $30 140 11.9% $3,556 2.2% $25
$30 - $99 824 69.8% $34,500 21.2% $42
$100 - $299 95 8.1% $16,001 9.8% $168
$300 - $999 90 7.6% $47,844 29.3% $532
$1,000 - $2,999 27 2.3% $41,865 25.7% $1,551
$3,000+ 4 0.3% $19,296 11.8% $4,824

70% of accounts pay $30-$99/mo (the Standard tier minimum band). The real revenue power is in the $300-$3K band which is 10% of accounts but 55% of MRR. These are natural upsell targets for Business/Enterprise.

Free-to-Paid Conversion

Month New Free Signups Conversions Rate
Jan 25 1,183 30 2.5%
Feb 25 1,021 28 2.7%
Mar 25 1,147 28 2.4%
Apr 25 1,149 30 2.6%
May 25 1,989 35 1.8%
Jun 25 1,168 44 3.8%
Jul 25 1,513 41 2.7%
Aug 25 1,498 34 2.3%
Sep 25 1,462 44 3.0%
Oct 25 1,793 52 2.9%
Nov 25 1,641 3 0.2% *
Dec 25 1,580 47 3.0%
Jan 26 4,780 64 1.3% **

* Nov data anomaly -- likely data lag in package change tracking ** Jan 26 shows 4,780 new free accounts (2.5x normal) -- may include a burst of signups or data correction. 64 conversions is the highest absolute number.

Average conversion rate (excl anomalies): ~2.7%

Top 20 Self-Service Accounts (Oct 2025 MRR)

# Customer Tier MRR ARR Messages/mo
1 For Good AI Pro $6,516 $78,192 1.3B
2 Sxbet Pro $4,947 $59,364 2.8B
3 Toddle Pro $4,379 $52,548 762M
4 Umbler Pro $3,454 $41,448 976M
5 Torq Pro $2,761 $33,132 914M
6 RevisionDojo Pro $2,280 $27,360 320M
7 Noota Pro $2,084 $25,008 1.1B
8 Wooclap Pro $2,079 $24,948 380M
9 Personal: Jag Pro $2,007 $24,084 953M
10 Tanooki Labs Pro $1,965 $23,580 125M
11 Abyan Capital Pro $1,803 $21,636 803M
12 Detrack Systems Pro $1,789 $21,468 757M
13 Vetcove Pro $1,769 $21,228 542M
14 Orbital Witness Standard $1,718 $20,616 32M
15 Mygate Pro $1,630 $19,560 497M
16 Level Software Pro $1,548 $18,576 70M
17 Blanklabs Pro $1,518 $18,216 508M
18 Lightspeed POS Pro $1,468 $17,616 367M
19 MightyCall Standard $1,382 $16,584 879M
20 Desk Manager Standard $1,379 $16,548 685M

18 of top 20 are Pro tier. The top 3 accounts alone are $15.8K MRR ($190K ARR) -- these are strong candidates for Enterprise conversion given their usage scale (billions of messages).


5. Data Notes & Methodology

Data Sources

Source Coverage Used For
V_UNIFIED_REVENUE (Stripe) Jan 2025 - Jan 2026 Actual invoice revenue / MRR
COMMERCIAL_INFO Jan 2025 - Oct 2025 Billing detail, tier breakdown, usage metrics
ACCOUNT_PACKAGE_PLAN_CHANGE Jan 2025 - Feb 2026 Tier movements, upgrades/downgrades
ACCOUNT_OVERVIEW + PACKAGE_TIER_MAPPING Current Account classification

Self-Service Definition

  • Standard Self-Service: ably_standard, self_serve_tier (legacy), payg_tier (legacy)
  • Pro Self-Service: ably_pro
  • Mapped via PACKAGE_TIER_MAPPING table (TIER_ORDER 2 and 3)

Known Data Caveats

  1. COMMERCIAL_INFO billing data stops at Oct 2025 -- Nov 2025 onwards shows $0 INVOICE_VALUE. This is a known lag in the billing pipeline. Stripe invoice data (V_UNIFIED_REVENUE) is current through Jan 2026.

  2. Mar 2025 anomalies -- Package migration from legacy tiers to new tiers causes artificial churn/new metrics. The ~$31K "churned MRR" in March is largely accounts being reclassified, not actual customer loss.

  3. MRR vs invoice timing -- Stripe invoices don't always align to calendar months. Some months show lower MRR due to billing cycle offsets (e.g., Feb 2025 dip).

  4. "New account" definition varies -- COMMERCIAL_INFO tracks first billing appearance (may include re-activated accounts). Package change data tracks actual tier transitions. Numbers may differ by 10-20%.

  5. ARPU includes $0 usage months -- Some accounts are on paid tiers but had zero usage in a given month. "Paying ARPU" filters to INVOICE_VALUE > 0.

  6. Revenue excludes Estimated and Xero sources -- A small number of self-service accounts (90-94) have "Estimated" revenue ($6.5K/mo) from COMMERCIAL_INFO package prices. 1-3 accounts have Xero invoices. Stripe is the canonical source.

Rank Account_ID Customer Tier Monthly_MRR Annual_ARR Messages_Per_Month Peak_Connections
1 56824 For Good AI Pro Self-Service 6516 78192 1296091505 19770
2 7738 Sxbet Pro Self-Service 4947 59364 2762846359 43929
3 7126 Toddle Pro Self-Service 4379 52548 761602676 48346
4 17136 Umbler Pro Self-Service 3454 41448 975979494 6529
5 18028 Torq Pro Self-Service 2761 33132 913712461 3919
6 71122 RevisionDojo Pro Self-Service 2280 27360 320488739 148577
7 23201 Noota Pro Self-Service 2084 25008 1058367401 438
8 3823 Wooclap Pro Self-Service 2079 24948 379606527 23269
9 64374 Personal: Jag Pro Self-Service 2007 24084 953136240 1882
10 56534 Tanooki Labs Pro Self-Service 1965 23580 124841445 1707
11 69187 Abyan Capital Pro Self-Service 1803 21636 802570483 219
12 2210 Detrack Systems Pte Ltd Pro Self-Service 1789 21468 756975597 3832
13 65400 Vetcove Pro Self-Service 1769 21228 542407213 7582
14 46391 Orbital Witness Standard Self-Service 1718 20616 31535965 900
15 2733 Mygate (Vivish Technologies) Pro Self-Service 1630 19560 497198480 20159
16 8577 Level Software Pro Self-Service 1548 18576 69737239 40894
17 48570 Blanklabs Pro Self-Service 1518 18216 507647943 973
18 7797 Lightspeed POS Systems Pro Self-Service 1468 17616 367190992 38490
19 42355 MightyCall Standard Self-Service 1382 16584 879354980 2821
20 4492 Desk Manager Standard Self-Service 1379 16548 684782064 8143
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment