Analyze the first drive of games when Matt LaFleur is coaching the Greenbay Packers.

analyze_lafleur_opening_drives.py

import nflreadpy as nfl
import polars as pl

def analyze_lafleur_opening_drives():
    """
    Analyze Matt LaFleur's opening drive play-calling for Green Bay Packers
    Matt LaFleur became head coach in 2019
    """
    # Load play-by-play data for LaFleur's tenure (2019-2024)
    print("Loading play-by-play data...")
    pbp = nfl.load_pbp(seasons=range(2019, 2025))
    
    # Filter for Green Bay Packers games
    gb_games = pbp.filter(
        (pl.col('posteam') == 'GB') | (pl.col('defteam') == 'GB')
    )
    
    # Get unique game IDs where GB was involved
    game_ids = gb_games.select('game_id').unique().sort('game_id')
    
    print(f"\nTotal games found: {len(game_ids)}")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    results = []
    
    for game_row in game_ids.iter_rows(named=True):
        game_id = game_row['game_id']
        
        # Get all plays for this game
        game_plays = pbp.filter(pl.col('game_id') == game_id)
        
        # Get the first drive for Green Bay (where they have possession)
        gb_first_drive = game_plays.filter(
            (pl.col('posteam') == 'GB') & 
            (pl.col('drive').is_not_null())
        ).sort(['qtr', 'game_seconds_remaining'], descending=[False, True])
        
        if len(gb_first_drive) == 0:
            continue
        
        # Get the first drive number
        first_drive_num = gb_first_drive.select('drive').head(1).item()
        
        # Get all plays from the first drive
        first_drive_plays = gb_first_drive.filter(pl.col('drive') == first_drive_num)
        
        # Filter out non-plays (penalties with no play, timeouts, etc.)
        actual_plays = first_drive_plays.filter(
            (pl.col('play_type').is_in(['pass', 'run'])) &
            (pl.col('desc').is_not_null())
        )
        
        if len(actual_plays) < 3:
            continue
        
        # Get first 3 plays
        first_3_plays = actual_plays.head(3)
        
        # Extract play types
        play_types = first_3_plays.select('play_type').to_series().to_list()
        play_descriptions = first_3_plays.select('desc').to_series().to_list()
        
        # Check if all 3 are passes
        all_passes = all(pt == 'pass' for pt in play_types)
        
        # Get drive result
        drive_result = first_drive_plays.select('fixed_drive_result').head(1).item()
        
        # Get game result
        game_info = game_plays.head(1)
        home_team = game_info.select('home_team').item()
        away_team = game_info.select('away_team').item()
        home_score = game_info.select('home_score').item()
        away_score = game_info.select('away_score').item()
        
        if home_team == 'GB':
            gb_score = home_score
            opp_score = away_score
            opponent = away_team
        else:
            gb_score = away_score
            opp_score = home_score
            opponent = home_team
        
        if gb_score > opp_score:
            game_result = 'W'
        elif gb_score < opp_score:
            game_result = 'L'
        else:
            game_result = 'T'
        
        # Get season and week
        season = game_info.select('season').item()
        week = game_info.select('week').item()
        
        results.append({
            'season': season,
            'week': week,
            'game_id': game_id,
            'opponent': opponent,
            'started_3_passes': all_passes,
            'play_1': play_types[0] if len(play_types) > 0 else None,
            'play_2': play_types[1] if len(play_types) > 1 else None,
            'play_3': play_types[2] if len(play_types) > 2 else None,
            'drive_result': drive_result,
            'game_result': game_result,
            'gb_score': gb_score,
            'opp_score': opp_score,
            'desc_1': play_descriptions[0][:100] if len(play_descriptions) > 0 else None,
            'desc_2': play_descriptions[1][:100] if len(play_descriptions) > 1 else None,
            'desc_3': play_descriptions[2][:100] if len(play_descriptions) > 2 else None,
        })
    
    # Convert to DataFrame
    results_df = pl.DataFrame(results)
    
    print(f"\nGames analyzed: {len(results_df)}")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    # Filter for games starting with 3 passes
    three_pass_games = results_df.filter(pl.col('started_3_passes') == True)
    not_three_pass_games = results_df.filter(pl.col('started_3_passes') == False)
    
    # Filter for games starting with a run
    run_first_games = results_df.filter(pl.col('play_1') == 'run')
    
    print(f"\n{'='*80}")
    print(f"GAMES STARTING WITH 3 PASSES: {len(three_pass_games)}")
    print(f"{'='*80}\n")
    
    if len(three_pass_games) > 0:
        # Overall record
        wins = three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'W').height
        losses = three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'L').height
        ties = three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'T').height
        
        print(f"Overall Record: {wins}-{losses}" + (f"-{ties}" if ties > 0 else ""))
        if wins + losses > 0:
            win_pct = wins / (wins + losses) * 100
            print(f"Win Percentage: {win_pct:.1f}%\n")
        
        # Drive outcomes breakdown
        print("Drive Outcomes:")
        drive_outcomes = three_pass_games.group_by('drive_result').agg(
            pl.len().alias('count')
        ).sort('count', descending=True)
        
        for row in drive_outcomes.iter_rows(named=True):
            print(f"  {row['drive_result']}: {row['count']}")
        
        print("\nDetailed Game Results:")
        print("-" * 80)
        
        for row in three_pass_games.sort(['season', 'week']).iter_rows(named=True):
            print(f"\n{row['season']} Week {row['week']} vs {row['opponent']}")
            print(f"  Result: {row['game_result']} ({row['gb_score']}-{row['opp_score']})")
            print(f"  Drive Outcome: {row['drive_result']}")
            print(f"  Play 1 (pass): {row['desc_1']}")
            print(f"  Play 2 (pass): {row['desc_2']}")
            print(f"  Play 3 (pass): {row['desc_3']}")
    else:
        print("No games found starting with 3 passes")
    
    print(f"\n{'='*80}")
    print(f"GAMES NOT STARTING WITH 3 PASSES: {len(not_three_pass_games)}")
    print(f"{'='*80}\n")
    
    if len(not_three_pass_games) > 0:
        wins = not_three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'W').height
        losses = not_three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'L').height
        ties = not_three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'T').height
        
        print(f"Overall Record: {wins}-{losses}" + (f"-{ties}" if ties > 0 else ""))
        if wins + losses > 0:
            win_pct = wins / (wins + losses) * 100
            print(f"Win Percentage: {win_pct:.1f}%\n")
        
        # Drive outcomes breakdown
        print("Drive Outcomes:")
        drive_outcomes = not_three_pass_games.group_by('drive_result').agg(
            pl.len().alias('count')
        ).sort('count', descending=True)
        
        for row in drive_outcomes.iter_rows(named=True):
            print(f"  {row['drive_result']}: {row['count']}")
    
    print("\n" + "=" * 80)
    print("COMPARISON")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    # Calculate TD rates
    td_rate_3pass = 0
    td_rate_other = 0
    td_rate_run_first = 0
    
    if len(three_pass_games) > 0:
        td_count_3pass = three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('drive_result') == 'Touchdown').height
        td_rate_3pass = td_count_3pass / len(three_pass_games) * 100
    
    if len(not_three_pass_games) > 0:
        td_count_other = not_three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('drive_result') == 'Touchdown').height
        td_rate_other = td_count_other / len(not_three_pass_games) * 100
    
    if len(run_first_games) > 0:
        td_count_run = run_first_games.filter(pl.col('drive_result') == 'Touchdown').height
        td_rate_run_first = td_count_run / len(run_first_games) * 100
    
    if len(three_pass_games) > 0 and len(not_three_pass_games) > 0:
        wp_3pass = three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'W').height / len(three_pass_games) * 100
        wp_other = not_three_pass_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'W').height / len(not_three_pass_games) * 100
        
        print(f"\nWin % when starting with 3 passes: {wp_3pass:.1f}%")
        print(f"Win % when NOT starting with 3 passes: {wp_other:.1f}%")
        print(f"Difference: {wp_3pass - wp_other:+.1f} percentage points")
        
        print(f"\nTD % when starting with 3 passes: {td_rate_3pass:.1f}% ({td_count_3pass}/{len(three_pass_games)})")
        print(f"TD % when NOT starting with 3 passes: {td_rate_other:.1f}% ({td_count_other}/{len(not_three_pass_games)})")
    
    if len(run_first_games) > 0:
        wp_run_first = run_first_games.filter(pl.col('game_result') == 'W').height / len(run_first_games) * 100
        
        print(f"\n{'='*80}")
        print(f"GAMES STARTING WITH A RUN: {len(run_first_games)}")
        print(f"{'='*80}")
        print(f"Win %: {wp_run_first:.1f}%")
        print(f"TD %: {td_rate_run_first:.1f}% ({td_count_run}/{len(run_first_games)})")
        
        # Show drive outcomes for run-first
        print("\nDrive Outcomes:")
        drive_outcomes = run_first_games.group_by('drive_result').agg(
            pl.len().alias('count')
        ).sort('count', descending=True)
        
        for row in drive_outcomes.iter_rows(named=True):
            print(f"  {row['drive_result']}: {row['count']}")
    
    return results_df

def calculate_league_opening_drive_stats(seasons=range(2019, 2025)):
    """Calculate league-wide opening drive statistics for comparison"""
    print("\n" + "=" * 80)
    print("CALCULATING LEAGUE-WIDE OPENING DRIVE STATISTICS")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    pbp = nfl.load_pbp(seasons=seasons)
    
    # Get all games
    all_games = pbp.select('game_id').unique()
    
    opening_drives = []
    
    for game_row in all_games.iter_rows(named=True):
        game_id = game_row['game_id']
        game_plays = pbp.filter(pl.col('game_id') == game_id)
        
        # Get both teams
        teams = game_plays.select('posteam').unique().drop_nulls()
        
        for team_row in teams.iter_rows(named=True):
            team = team_row['posteam']
            if team is None:
                continue
            
            # Get first drive for this team
            team_drives = game_plays.filter(
                (pl.col('posteam') == team) & 
                (pl.col('drive').is_not_null())
            ).sort(['qtr', 'game_seconds_remaining'], descending=[False, True])
            
            if len(team_drives) == 0:
                continue
            
            first_drive_num = team_drives.select('drive').head(1).item()
            first_drive = team_drives.filter(pl.col('drive') == first_drive_num)
            
            drive_result = first_drive.select('fixed_drive_result').head(1).item()
            
            opening_drives.append({
                'team': team,
                'game_id': game_id,
                'drive_result': drive_result
            })
    
    drives_df = pl.DataFrame(opening_drives)
    
    print(f"\nTotal opening drives analyzed: {len(drives_df)}")
    
    # Calculate touchdown rate
    td_drives = drives_df.filter(pl.col('drive_result') == 'Touchdown').height
    td_rate = td_drives / len(drives_df) * 100
    
    print(f"\nOpening drives ending in Touchdown: {td_drives} ({td_rate:.1f}%)")
    
    # Show all outcomes
    print("\nAll opening drive outcomes:")
    outcomes = drives_df.group_by('drive_result').agg(
        pl.len().alias('count')
    ).sort('count', descending=True)
    
    for row in outcomes.iter_rows(named=True):
        pct = row['count'] / len(drives_df) * 100
        print(f"  {row['drive_result']}: {row['count']} ({pct:.1f}%)")
    
    return td_rate

if __name__ == "__main__":
    results = analyze_lafleur_opening_drives()
    league_td_rate = calculate_league_opening_drive_stats()
    
    print("\n\nAnalysis complete!")
    print("\n" + "=" * 80)
    print("CONTEXT")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    # Calculate LaFleur's TD rates
    three_pass = results.filter(pl.col('started_3_passes') == True)
    run_first = results.filter(pl.col('play_1') == 'run')
    
    td_3pass = three_pass.filter(pl.col('drive_result') == 'Touchdown').height if len(three_pass) > 0 else 0
    td_run = run_first.filter(pl.col('drive_result') == 'Touchdown').height if len(run_first) > 0 else 0
    
    rate_3pass = (td_3pass / len(three_pass) * 100) if len(three_pass) > 0 else 0
    rate_run = (td_run / len(run_first) * 100) if len(run_first) > 0 else 0
    
    print(f"LaFleur's TD rate when starting with 3 passes: {rate_3pass:.1f}% ({td_3pass} of {len(three_pass)})")
    print(f"LaFleur's TD rate when starting with a run: {rate_run:.1f}% ({td_run} of {len(run_first)})")
    print(f"League average opening drive TD rate (2019-2024): {league_td_rate:.1f}%")

output.txt

Loading play-by-play data...

Total games found: 108
================================================================================

Games analyzed: 106
================================================================================

================================================================================
GAMES STARTING WITH 3 PASSES: 12
================================================================================

Overall Record: 7-5
Win Percentage: 58.3%

Drive Outcomes:
  Punt: 3
  Touchdown: 3
  Field goal: 2
  Missed field goal: 2
  Turnover: 1
  Turnover on downs: 1

Detailed Game Results:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2019 Week 4 vs PHI
  Result: L (27-34)
  Drive Outcome: Touchdown
  Play 1 (pass): (12:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Williams to GB 11 for no gain (53-N.Bradham).
  Play 2 (pass): (12:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to GB 35 for 9 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
  Play 3 (pass): (11:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to PHI 7 for 58 yards (22-S.Jones).

2019 Week 9 vs LAC
  Result: L (11-26)
  Drive Outcome: Punt
  Play 1 (pass): (6:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 33-A.Jones to GB 24 for -1 yards (52-D.Perryman).
  Play 2 (pass): (5:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to GB 27 for 8 yards (52-D.Perryman).
  Play 3 (pass): (5:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 18 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa).

2020 Week 4 vs ATL
  Result: W (30-16)
  Drive Outcome: Touchdown
  Play 1 (pass): (13:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling.
  Play 2 (pass): (13:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 85-R.Tonyan to ATL 46 for 27 yards (32-J.Hawkins
  Play 3 (pass): (12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 33-A.Jones to ATL 38 for 8 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

2020 Week 14 vs DET
  Result: W (31-24)
  Drive Outcome: Touchdown
  Play 1 (pass): (9:24) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at GB 29 for 4 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
  Play 2 (pass): (8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 19-E.St. Brown to GB 44 for 15 yards (51-J.Tavai).
  Play 3 (pass): (8:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2021 Week 10 vs SEA
  Result: W (17-0)
  Drive Outcome: Missed field goal
  Play 1 (pass): (14:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at GB 39 for 3 yards (2-D.Ree
  Play 2 (pass): (14:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (2-D.Reed).
  Play 3 (pass): (14:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to SEA 20 for 41 yards (2-D.R

2021 Week 11 vs MIN
  Result: L (31-34)
  Drive Outcome: Field goal
  Play 1 (pass): (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams to MIN 38 for 37 yards (54-E.Kendricks
  Play 2 (pass): (14:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (23-X.Woods).
  Play 3 (pass): (14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to MIN 36 for 2 yards (96-A.Watts; 54

2021 Week 14 vs CHI
  Result: W (45-30)
  Drive Outcome: Punt
  Play 1 (pass): (11:28) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 13-A.Lazard to GB 26 for 6 yards (25-A.Burns, 58-R.Smith).
  Play 2 (pass): (10:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 15 for -11 yards (94-R.Quinn).
  Play 3 (pass): (10:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-J.Deguara to GB 21 for 6 yards (21-X.Crawford)

2021 Week 16 vs CLE
  Result: W (24-22)
  Drive Outcome: Punt
  Play 1 (pass): (12:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 89-M.Lewis to GB 26 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward).
  Play 2 (pass): (11:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 33-A.Jones.
  Play 3 (pass): (11:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 34 for 8 yards (36-M.Stewart, 22-

2022 Week 9 vs DET
  Result: L (9-15)
  Drive Outcome: Turnover
  Play 1 (pass): (10:51) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to GB 25 for 18 yards (31-K.Joseph; 23-M.Hughes)
  Play 2 (pass): (10:06) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right. Ball thrown away.
  Play 3 (pass): (10:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 13-A.Lazard (5-D.Elliott).

2023 Week 4 vs DET
  Result: L (20-34)
  Drive Outcome: Field goal
  Play 1 (pass): (13:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones.
  Play 2 (pass): (13:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DET 25 for -9 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
  Play 3 (pass): (12:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to DET 16 for 9 yards (6-I.Melifonwu).

2023 Week 11 vs LAC
  Result: W (23-20)
  Drive Outcome: Turnover on downs
  Play 1 (pass): (14:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to GB 23 for 15 yards (3-D.James).
  Play 2 (pass): (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs to GB 31 for 8 yards (43-M.Davis).
  Play 3 (pass): (13:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 88-L.Musgrave to GB 42 for 11 yards (20-D.Marlowe).

2023 Week 18 vs CHI
  Result: W (17-9)
  Drive Outcome: Missed field goal
  Play 1 (pass): (8:54) 10-J.Love pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 29 for 4 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
  Play 2 (pass): (8:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 13-D.Wicks.
  Play 3 (pass): (8:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 33-A.Jones to GB 36 for 7 yards (53-T.Edwards).

================================================================================
GAMES NOT STARTING WITH 3 PASSES: 94
================================================================================

Overall Record: 62-32
Win Percentage: 66.0%

Drive Outcomes:
  Punt: 38
  Touchdown: 30
  Field goal: 15
  Turnover: 6
  Turnover on downs: 3
  Missed field goal: 2

================================================================================
COMPARISON
================================================================================

Win % when starting with 3 passes: 58.3%
Win % when NOT starting with 3 passes: 66.0%
Difference: -7.6 percentage points

TD % when starting with 3 passes: 25.0% (3/12)
TD % when NOT starting with 3 passes: 31.9% (30/94)

================================================================================
GAMES STARTING WITH A RUN: 56
================================================================================
Win %: 64.3%
TD %: 26.8% (15/56)

Drive Outcomes:
  Punt: 23
  Touchdown: 15
  Field goal: 13
  Turnover: 2
  Missed field goal: 2
  Turnover on downs: 1

================================================================================
CALCULATING LEAGUE-WIDE OPENING DRIVE STATISTICS
================================================================================

Total opening drives analyzed: 3350

Opening drives ending in Touchdown: 799 (23.9%)

All opening drive outcomes:
  Punt: 1498 (44.7%)
  Touchdown: 799 (23.9%)
  Field goal: 533 (15.9%)
  Turnover: 282 (8.4%)
  Turnover on downs: 115 (3.4%)
  Missed field goal: 76 (2.3%)
  Opp touchdown: 41 (1.2%)
  Safety: 6 (0.2%)


Analysis complete!

================================================================================
CONTEXT
================================================================================
LaFleur's TD rate when starting with 3 passes: 25.0% (3 of 12)
LaFleur's TD rate when starting with a run: 26.8% (15 of 56)
League average opening drive TD rate (2019-2024): 23.9%