Arun Sathiya arunsathiya

China's Silver Export Restrictions & Understanding Precious Metal Ratios

China's Export Restrictions: What Happens Next?

China announced that starting January 1, 2026, exports of certain critical minerals (including silver, antimony, and others) will require government licenses. This isn't an outright ban, but it gives Beijing a chokepoint to control flows.

Scenario 1: Prices Converge Upward (Most Likely Short-Term)

Western markets must catch up because physical supply shrinks
If China controls ~2/3 of refined silver output and restricts exports, Western industrial users (solar manufacturers, electronics, EVs) face genuine shortages
COMEX can't settle contracts with paper forever—eventually physical delivery demands force price discovery higher

SD Bullion Market Update Summary (Christmas Week 2025)

Overview

This is a bullion market update from SD Bullion's James Anderson, covering an unexpectedly volatile Christmas trading week. The core narrative: Chinese exchanges are paying massive premiums for silver, platinum, and palladium, signaling potential supply shortages and a significant shift in precious metals markets.

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